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You are here: Home / Here’s What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

Apr 01 2025

Here’s What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the price of falling pricesSo, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesSo, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

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Dr Jan Duffy REALTOR
Dr. Jan Duffy, REALTOR® - Las Vegas Fast Home Sale Expert Dr. Jan Duffy leads Cash Offers Home Las Vegas, revolutionizing the local real estate market with expedited, hassle-free home sales. As a licensed REALTOR® and fast-transaction specialist, Dr. Duffy has successfully guided countless homeowners through Las Vegas's unique housing landscape. Key Expertise: • Rapid home sales and competitive cash offers • Deep knowledge of Las Vegas neighborhoods (Summerlin, Henderson, Arts District, Centennial Hills) • Expert market analysis and property valuation • Custom solutions for urgent moves, property issues, and foreclosure prevention Combining sharp real estate acumen with unwavering client focus, Dr. Duffy delivers personalized, efficient solutions for every situation. Whether you need a quick sale or a reliable cash offer, her team ensures a smooth, stress-free process. A trusted voice in Las Vegas real estate, Dr. Duffy regularly shares insights on market trends and investment strategies. Her commitment to integrity and community values has established Cash Offers Home Las Vegas as a pillar in the local real estate scene. Experience a new standard in real estate transactions. Contact Dr. Jan Duffy for your no-obligation cash offer today. DrDuffy@bhhsnv.com | www.californiatovegashomes.com Twitter: @DrJanDuffy | Facebook: SpeedyCashHomeOffers
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Some Highlights

  • Are you wondering what to expect if you buy or sell a home in the second half of the year? Here’s what the expert forecasts tell you.
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  • Want to know what this could mean for your plans? Connect with a local agent and talk through it together.
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  • Don’t Let Student Loans Hold You Back from Homeownership
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