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You are here: Home / Archives for forecast

forecast

Jan 23 2024

Experts Project Home Prices Will Increase in 2024

Even though home prices are going up nationally, some people are still worried they might come down. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae found that 24% of people think home prices will actually decline over the next 12 months. That means almost one out of every four people are dealing with that fear, and you might be, too.

To help ease that concern, here’s what experts forecast will happen with prices this year.

Experts Project a Modest Increase

Check out the latest home price forecasts from eight different sources (see graph below):

The blue bar on the left means, on average, experts think home prices will go up over 2% by the end of this year – not down.

Prices aren’t likely to depreciate in 2024 because inventory is still tight and lower mortgage rates are leading to strong buyer demand. Those two factors will keep pushing prices up as the year goes on. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“With mortgage rates dropping, demand for homes in early 2024 is likely to be strong and will again put pressure on prices, similar to trends observed in early 2023 . . . Most markets will continue to reach new home price highs over the course of 2024.”

What Does This Mean for You?

Experts are saying home prices will go up this year, and that’s good news if you’re thinking about buying a home. When you become a homeowner, you want the value of your house to go up. That appreciation is what builds equity and makes homeownership such a good investment over time.

Beyond that, expected home price appreciation also means if you’re ready, willing, and able to buy, waiting just means it will cost more later. 

Bottom Line

If you’re worried home prices will come down, don’t be. Many experts believe they’ll actually go up this year. If you have questions or worries about what’s happening with prices in your area, it’s a good idea to talk to a real estate agent.

Written by Dr Jan Duffy REALTOR · Categorized: For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates · Tagged: according, estate, exciting, experts, forecast, home, homeowners, housing market, investors, opportunities

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Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range. If you saw that and thought, “Great. I missed it,” you’re not the only one.

A lot of buyers are treating the 5s like some kind of magic number. As if moving from 6.1% to 5.99% suddenly changes everything. And from a mindset perspective, it does feel different.

But here’s the part most people don’t actually run the math on.

The Payment Difference Isn’t What You Think

Let’s say you’re looking at a $500,000 home loan. At 6.1%, generally speaking, your principal and interest payment is roughly $3,030 per month. At 5.9%, it’s about $2,966 per month.

That’s a difference of only $64 a month.

Not $300.

Not $500.

Sixty dollars.

Let that sink in for just a moment.

a blue and green rectangular box with white textYes, over time that $64 a month can add up. But it’s far from the dramatic swing many buyers imagine when they say they’re “waiting for the 5s.”

The psychological impact of seeing a 5 in front of your rate can feel big. The financial impact? It might be something you don’t even notice when it’s all said and done.

Experts Aren’t Predicting a Big Drop

Another important piece to think about: most housing economists aren’t forecasting a long-term return to 5% territory anytime soon.

While rates will move up and down, likely hitting the high 5s here and there, the broader expectation is for mortgage rates to hover in the low 6% range this year, not stay in the 5’s or decline much more.

a graph with numbers and linesWhile it certainly could happen, the reality is, waiting for a deep drop may not deliver the payoff you’re hoping for, if you’re holding out

The Bigger Question to Ask

Instead of asking, “Did I miss the 5s?” A better question is: “Does today’s payment work for me?” 

If the monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, and you’ve found a home that meets your needs, the difference between 6.1% and 5.9% likely isn’t the deciding factor. It might be one of them, but it shouldn’t be everything. 

And remember, mortgage rates aren’t permanent. If they drop meaningfully later, refinancing is always an option. But you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.

Waiting Might Feel Safe, But It Isn’t Always Strategic

It’s natural to want the best possible rate. Everyone does. But sometimes buyers overestimate how much a rate in the high 5s will change things in today’s market.

Don’t miss the fact that rates have already come down. A year ago, they were in the 7s. Now? They’re hovering in the low 6s. And for a lot of people, that percentage point difference that’s already here is the real game changer.

If you paused your plans when rates were higher, now may be the right time to re-run your numbers. Not because rates are “perfect.” But because the monthly payment math might work better than you think, even with rates in the low 6s. 

Before assuming you’ve missed your moment, take another look at the numbers.

You may find it never disappeared.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that magic five number for rates, that strategy may not pay off as much as you’d expect.

Connect with an agent or lender so you can double check the math at your price point. You may realize payments are already within your range.

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  • Should You Wait for Lower Rates? March 9, 2026
    Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range.
  • Spring Sellers Have an Edge. Here’s Why. March 5, 2026
    Homeowners looking to sell usually want three things: plenty of interested buyers, strong offers, and a short timeline. Spring is the season that most often delivers all three.
  • Are Home Prices Dropping? Here’s the Real Story. March 4, 2026
    You’ve probably seen posts on social media talking about how “home prices are falling.”
  • The Hidden Advantage Repeat Buyers Have Right Now March 2, 2026
    What if you didn’t have a mortgage payment on your next house? It may sound a little unrealistic. But for a number of homeowners, it’s actually doable.
  • Top Mistakes Homeowners Are Making in 2026 (And How To Avoid Them) February 26, 2026
    Let’s be clear: selling your house is absolutely possible right now. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), roughly 11k homes sell every day in this country.
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